The North Coast is seen as a key battleground at the state election on Saturday (March 23).
Subscribe now for unlimited access.
$0/
(min cost $0)
or signup to continue reading
Once considered National party heartland a change in demographics along the North Coast has seen some historically safe seats turn marginal.
Election analyst William Bowe from The Poll Bludger said the North Coast could decide the election.
"The feeling is that the Coalition will hold up okay in Sydney but it has big problems in the regions because there is a feeling the government is too focused on Sydney (the stadiums issue has a lot to do with this) and the North Coast is where most of the winnable seats for Labor are," he said.
Port Macquarie, Oxley and Clarence are presumably safe, but pretty much every seat from Upper Hunter north to the Queensland border is an important battleground.
- William Bowe, political analyst
Lismore (held by the Nationals 0.2%) and Tweed (held by Nationals by 3.2%) are seen as most vulnerable.
Lismore will be particularly difficult for the National Party to hold with the retirement of long serving National MP Thomas George and Labor selecting Janelle Saffin as its candidate, former MP for the local federal seat of Page.
Ballina which is currently held by the Greens by 3.1% is seen as a three-way race between current MP Tamara Smith, the Nationals candidate former State Director and current MLC Ben Franklin and the Labor candidate union organiser Asren Pugh.
Mr Bowe said the change in demographics in these areas have hurt the National Party.
"These were once basically rural areas that are now becoming semi-urbanised and attracting 'lifestyle' voters who are on the political left."
Coffs Harbour a traditionally safe seat for the National Party is also predicted to be closer than expected with the retirement of popular, long-serving sitting member Andrew Fraser who held the seat by 14.3%.
"The Nationals will lose the huge personal vote of Andrew Fraser combined with the aforementioned feeling that the government is too focused on Sydney but in any case, I'll be very surprised if Labor wins Coffs, despite all the talk," Mr Bowe said.
On the lower North Coast Myall Lakes (held by the Nationals by 8.7%) and Upper Hunter (held by the Nationals by 2.2%) are also seats to watch.
Upper Hunter was the surprise packet of the 2015 election won marginally by the Nationals Michael Johnsen, a huge 21 per cent swing against the party.
Labor's campaign hit a major snag after it had to dump its candidate Muswellbrook Mayor Martin Rush earlier this year.
The Shooters Fishers and Farmers have nominated Lee Watts who polled 19% as an Independent in 2015. Labor's new candidate is Cessnock Deputy Mayor Melanie Dagg.
The Berejiklian Government needs to lose six seats to be forced into a minority government.
Labor has to win 13 seats to form a majority government.
Whatever happens both parties will be closely watching the North Coast on election day.
- William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.
