So, the curtain has come down on the Malcolm Turnbull era but the “why is he not Prime Minister?” question still hangs there.
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The reason Malcolm Turnbull is not Prime Minister started at the 2016 election when he lost 14 seats and his majority was reduced to one seat. His late and ungracious speech that night was the first indication things would not go well.
It sounds cynical but the first concern of members of parliament is to hold their seats. For MPs that is more important than whether they are in government or opposition.
When Newspoll after Newspoll put dozens of government MPs at risk of losing their seats something was going to give. As a colleague of mine once said, “When you corner a tiger, it fights.”
The crunch was the Longman by-election in July when the Liberal Part primary vote crashed to 29%. The man in the electorate next door to Longman is Peter Dutton. Put simply, it was Peter Dutton’s survival instincts that triggered the move against Malcolm Turnbull.
There were other reasons but most were being supressed until Longman. The trouble is no one is going to admit to a selfish, personal survival, reason for dumping a Prime Minister. But if the Liberals were honest that is why Malcolm Turnbull was removed. Not admitting it is the reason the question of why still hangs there.
The Wentworth result looks bad for the Liberal Party but there are mitigating factors. Malcolm Turnbull was popular, a good local member and carried the prestige of being Prime Minister. The Liberal candidate, even if high quality, was an outsider. Wentworth is one of the richest and most progressive electorates in Australia with more interest in climate change than electricity bills. Kerryn Phelps was the perfect strong, local, female and credible independent candidate.
A look at the figures shows Labor’s vote at 11 per cent and The Greens at 9 per cent. Both recorded swings of 6% against them. If the situation normalises by next May’s election a Liberal recovery from a 49-51 pre cent two party preferred outcome might not be impossible.
The message from Wentworth for the National Party is that disunity is death. If there is any move by or on behalf of Barnaby Joyce it would be electoral suicide. MPs in tight seats would be better advised to pay attention to their constituents and put paid to any suggestions of leadership instability.
Stephen Lusher
Former Member for Hume
Port Macquarie