Nicholls has become a political battleground following the retirement of popular Nationals MP Damian Drum, who holds the seat with a massive 20 per cent margin.

Located in the state's north, the seat takes in Shepparton, Echuca, Yarrawonga, Murchison, Nagambie and Seymour, with its northern border running along the Murray River.

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Mr Drum's retirement allows both Coalition parties the opportunity to compete for the seat - often one party will bow out to avoid splitting the conservative vote.

But this election, the Nationals and Liberals will both field candidates in Sam Birrell and Stephen Brooks, respectively.

Enter Rob Priestly. The Shepparton councillor, who has also served as the city's deputy mayor, says Nicholls misses out on its fair share of funding and opportunity because the seat is among the safest in the country.

"A marginal seat will fix those problems," Mr Priestly said.

Mr Priestly's campaign is well-organised, with about 250 volunteers, and well-resourced, despite not accepting any donations from outside the electorate.

Compounding the government's concerns is the region's rebel streak. In the neighbouring federal electorate of Indi, two consecutive independents have been elected (a historical first) in Cathy McGowan and Helen Haines.

At a state level, Shepparton has been represented by independent Suzanna Sheed since 2014, when she took the seat of the Nationals.

Water management, and specifically the Murray-Darling Basin Plan, is the biggest local issue. However, the three lead candidates all share similar views - staunchly against more water entitlement buybacks and supportive of delaying deadlines to achieve water savings through efficiency projects.

But Mr Priestly might be viewed as a viable alternative to the Coalition, after more than a decade of the Liberals ignoring the community's water concerns and fears the Nationals, though sympathetic to the cause, are hamstrung by their political partners.

Of all this year's rural independent candidates - and there are many - Mr Priestly is among the favourites to pull off a miracle. But the Coalition should be considered the favourites.

Pre-election polling suggests Mr Priestly could capture up to 20 per cent of the first preference vote and the Coalition capturing a combined 40pc, with the Liberals a few percentage points ahead of the Nationals.

Both the National and Liberal candidates are pushing the idea that it's better to have an MP inside the government tent than outside it.

The Nationals are privately aggrieved to be defending - and possibly losing - the seat against the Liberals, who didn't contest the seat in 2019.

Outgoing MP, Damian Drum accused Mr Brooks of "running around mimicking National Party water policy, when the party has done nothing but stand in our road".

Mr Brooks is the son of Chris Brooks, the chairman of Southern Riverina Irrigators who is an outspoken critic of the plan and leading a class action against the Murray Darling Basin Authority. Like his father, he strongly opposes additional water recovery and has

In a recent opinion piece, Mr Brooks claimed Mr Priestly and Mr Birrell had no interest in water politics until they decided to run - though both have contributed to regional socio-economic water plans.

While Mr Brookes' views on water may align with those of the Nationals, his party's policy are very clear; the Liberals intend to deliver the plan on time and in full.

The Nationals candidate, Mr Birrell, has pointed out regardless of how Mr Brooks feels, his party overlords in Melbourne and Adelaide would overrule him. Mr Birrell has a background in irrigation technology and previously served as Committee for Greater Shepparton chief executive.

Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce launched his campaign - dubbed the Wombat trail - in Nicholls alongside Mr Birrell, opening the $324m Echuca-Moama Bridge.

But the Deputy Prime Minister is unpopular in many areas of rural Victoria and considered a drag on the campaigns of southern Nationals. Many rusted-on Victorian Nationals voters resent the federal party's direction around water, the resource sector and climate change.

The Liberals leading the early polling over the Nationals is mostly likely a reflection of the conservative vote's discontent with the Nationals, despite the local popularity of Mr Drum.

After Mr Joyce retook the party's leadership, Victorian Nationals leader Peter Walsh moved a motion to disaffiliate the state branch from the federal party. The move was ultimately voted down, but highlighted the deep anger among Victorian party members.

Mr Joyce's appearance in Nicholls may be limited, despite the threats the Nationals face from both Mr Brooks and Mr Priestly.

Mr Priestly is well aware of the community's feelings towards the Deputy Prime Minister and has been framing the election as a contest between himself and Mr Joyce, "who has ignored community".

Mr Priestly is also attempting to wedge the Coalition on climate change, urging stronger action to capitalise on the local opportunities that transition to net zero, including a centre of bioenergy production within the electorate.

A survey conducted at the end of last year found 57pc of Nicholls voters considered climate change either "an important issue" or "the most important issue" in determining their vote, while 58pc want the government to "do more" or "do much more" on climate change.

Cathy McGowan, the former independent Indi MP, who was alongside Mr Priestly at his campaign launch said to win, "we need 25,000 people in Nicholls who'll put Rob first".

"Then we need 20,000 who'll put him second. Those 20,000 will be the dissatisfied National voters, the Liberal, Labor and Greens voters," Ms McGowan said.

The result may come down to where the "dissatisfied National voters" chose to send their preferences.